Exit Poll Hints BJP's Comeback In 2019; But How Accurate Are They?

The final election result will be declared on 23rd May 2019.

Exit Poll Hints BJP

After the last phase of the Lok Sabha elections 2019 ended on 19th May, people across India were waiting for the result of the exit polls, which is an opinion of voters taken soon after they walk out casting their vote. These are conducted by a number of organisations by asking voters who they voted for. The main aim of the exit poll is to predict the election result before its actual date.

Exit poll results

Almost all the final exit poll results predict a comeback of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA government with a majority of 300+ seats. Although the south holds a dim picture, the party will win with a majority in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, etc. The exit polls also impacted the share market with Sensex opening at 38,819.68, up by 888.91 points and Nifty opening at 11,691.30, up by 284.15 points.

But how accurate are the exit polls and how much can we rely on them, has always been a debatable topic.

Source: peopleinfo

Accuracy of exit polls

Many recent exit polls have correctly predicted the election results. However, there have been many instances where they had been proven wrong which reminds us not to take them too seriously. The biggest failure was the 2004 Lok Sabha election, where the exit polls predicted the victory of BJP-led NDA government, but, Congress-led coalition won 222 seats and formed the government. 

This time, the prediction that Narendra Modi will form the government could come true, but the party winning with a majority is definitely sceptical.

Opposition's reaction

The opposition leaders have however ridiculed the exit polls and said that most of the times it has turned out to be wrong. Congress claimed that it will show its rising colour on the day of the election result. West Bengal Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee said,

"I don’t trust Exit Poll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip. I appeal to all Opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together."

The counting of votes will begin at 8 am on 23rd May 2019 and is expected to take longer than usual this time and will reportedly continue till night.

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